48 Pages Posted: 23 May 2008
Matthias Doepke
Northwestern University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research [CEPR]; National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]; IZA Institute of Labor Economics
Moshe Hazan
Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research [CEPR]
Yishay Maoz
The Open University of Israel - Department of Management and Economics
Abstract
We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the increased demand for female labor during World War II. We develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor-force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the long-term implications of a one-time demand shock for female labor, such as the one experienced by American women during wartime mobilization. For the war generation, the shock leads to a persistent increase in female labor supply due to the accumulation of work experience. In contrast, younger women who turn adult after the war face increased labor-market competition, which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier. In our calibrated model, this general-equilibrium effect generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust, as well as patterns for age-specific labor-force participation and fertility rates that are consistent with U.S. data.
Keywords: fertility, baby boom, World War II, female labor-force participation
JEL Classification: D58, E24, J13, J20
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
62 Pages Posted: 31 Dec 2007 Last revised: 16 Jun 2022
Matthias Doepke
Northwestern University - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research [CEPR]; National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]; IZA Institute of Labor Economics
Moshe Hazan
Tel Aviv University - Eitan Berglas School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research [CEPR]
Yishay Maoz
The Open University of Israel - Department of Management and Economics
Date Written: December 2007
Abstract
We argue that one major cause of the U.S. postwar baby boom was the rise in female labor supply during World War II. We develop a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility and female labor force participation decisions. We use the model to assess the impact of the war on female labor supply and fertility in the decades following the war. For the war generation of women, the high demand for female labor brought about by mobilization leads to an increase in labor supply that persists after the war. As a result, younger women who reach adulthood in the 1950s face increased labor market competition, which impels them to exit the labor market and start having children earlier. The effect is amplified by the rise in taxes necessary to pay down wartime government debt. In our calibrated model, the war generates a substantial baby boom followed by a baby bust.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Doepke, Matthias and Hazan, Moshe and Maoz, Yishay, The Baby Boom and World War Ii: A Macroeconomic Analysis [December 2007]. NBER Working Paper No. w13707, Available at SSRN: //ssrn.com/abstract=1079304
Image: REUTERS/Enrique Marcarian [ARGENTINA - Tags: POLITICS BUSINESS SOCIETY] - GM1E6CE05I501
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This study analyzes the timing, magnitude, and volume of the mid-twentieth century baby boom in European and non-European Western countries. The baby boom is found to have been especially strong in the non-European countries, fairly strong in some European countries, and quite weak in others. While the boom has often been linked with postwar economic growth and the recuperation of births postponed during the Depression era, we argue that this is only a limited part of the story. In most cases the recovery of the birth rate started well before the end of World War II, a fact not accounted for by existing theories. We investigate the roles played by the recovery of period as well as cohort fertility, the underlying marriage boom, and the recovery of marital fertility. We identify major puzzles for future research, including the reasons for strongly declining ages at marriage and the role played by contraceptive failure in the rise of high-parity births.
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